Tahrir Al-Sham, the New US Infantry in Syria

The US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf, the Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger D. Carstens, and the US Envoy for Syria Affairs Daniel Rubenstein on Friday met with al-Jolani. According to the State Department’s report, the discussions focused on the American nationals missing in Syria. The meeting also discussed the principles the US and its partners agreed upon in Aqaba Statement.

Leaf also met with civil society leaders and activists to seek their views directly on future of Syria. She described the meetings as follows: “The first meeting was good, but we will work with actions, not just words, from the new government, and that is an important point, which is mainly based on putting Syria on a path to economic recovery.”

The recent visit by US officials to Damascus, which came in the context of recent developments in Syria, marks a major shift in Washington’s policy, moving away from the military focus of recent years and toward direct diplomatic engagement. The meetings are part of a broader effort by Washington to manage the crisis and chart a new course for policy toward Syria.

Lifting sanctions 

Lifting sanctions on Syria, particularly the Caesar Act, and removing HTS from the terror blacklist were also among the issues raised during the US delegation’s meeting with al-Jolani. The Biden administration is evaluating the possibility of removing HTS’s terrorist label, provided that the group takes concrete steps to respect human rights and ensure the participation of minorities in the new government.

The US has taken steps to remove obstacles to cooperation with the HTS, and the US State Department announced that it scrapped a $10 million reward it had offered for information on al-Jolani following the US delegation’s meeting with de facto leader of Syria. 

It is noteworthy that although al-Jolani and the HTS have been on the West's terrorist list for the past decade, Washington and its allies have not taken any specific action against the armed group the way they ostensibly did against ISIS terrorists. At times, Washington officials even held meetings with the leaders of these groups to bolster their cooperation and coordination against the central government in Damascus. Therefore, dropping the terrorist label is aimed at opening the door to cooperation with HTS and strengthening relations with the future Syrian government. 

Dim prospects of an inclusive government 

The important issue that these days triggering obsession of the Syrian people and international community is the type of government to be formed in new Syria. According to the US State Department, the Damascus meeting underscored support for an inclusive political process with the participation of all minorities.

Washington has outlined a set of principles for the new Syria, such as respecting the rights of minorities and forming an inclusive government that Washington wants to share in the transition of power in Syria. Joe Biden also emphasized respecting human rights, committing to international law, and taking all necessary precautions to protect civilians, including members of minorities in Syria.

In his recent interviews, al-Jolani has stressed that the armed group seeks to form an inclusive, non-sectarian government that represents all Syrian communities. However, due to the groups’ history of cooperation with Al-Qaeda terror organization and their extremist ideology and different understanding of religion, there are concerns that some political factions will be excluded from the circle of power in the future government.

The inclusive government that the US and its allies are pushing for has no clear framework, and it is unclear which political spectrum it will encompass. For example, it is unclear whether the Alawites, who make up a large population and previously held the power in Syria under al-Assad family, will be allowed to play a role in post-Assad government.

Also there is the issue of the Kurds whom the US strives to incorporate in the new government by any means. Al-Jolani seems to have offered guarantees on their involvement in new government, but there is a serious obstacle here. Just contrary to the US that over the past decade has offered support to the Kurds in eastern Syria, Turkey is by no means ready to show tolerance with them. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who these days plays as the main winner of the developments in Syria, has repeatedly threatened terrorist groups in northern Syria that he will soon destroy them and in his recent remarks he also said that he will not leave Syria alone in the fight against ISIS and the Kurds. Therefore, given Turkey's announced policy towards the Kurds, there is no clear perspective on the presence of these groups in the new government. Other minorities, including Christians, although optimistic about the new atmosphere, are also concerned about not being able to have a share in the Syrian power structures.

Washington's worry about ISIS power gain 

In the American officials' meeting with the HTS leader, the regional developments and the need for joint efforts to fight terrorism including ISIS were discussed. Given the volatile situation in Syria, there are concerns that the country will become a safe haven for Al-Qaeda and ISIS. Currently, the ground is favorable for the resurgence of these groups, especially if the new government fails to provide basic services to the people and minorities, they can use this opportunity to produce insecurity.

On the other hand, although ISIS has never taken action against Israel as the enemy of Muslim world, in this situation where HTS has performed very poorly in dealing with Israeli territorial expansionism inside Syria, ISIS can use this opportunity to incite the feelings of Syrian nationalists and pave the way for its re-rise. Some Iraqi officials have also warned that ISIS is seeking to reorganize with the equipment it has obtained from the Syrian army. Since this takfiri organization does not believe in any rule or government other than its alleged caliphate, if it gains power, it can sink the region into a serious crisis.

The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized during his recent visit to the region that Washington and its allies are concerned that dangerous weapons will fall into the hands of terrorist groups as the army and other security forces collapse. Therefore, the US intends to use the military wing of the HTS for two purposes. First, to use this group to confront ISIS, which could pose a serious threat to Western interests, so as not to allow instability to return to Syria. Second, Washington intends to obtain a guarantee from the new rulers of Syria that the future government will not pose any threat to Israel. In other words, through diplomatic contacts with the HTS, the Americans are trying to align these groups with their policies and establish a puppet government next to the occupied Palestinian territories to act as Washington's infantry and a guardian of Western and Tel Aviv's interests in the region.

The US and other Western powers do not hide their happiness with assumption of power by the rebel groups in Syria, but since these groups are a mixture of multiple groups with sometimes opposite ideologies, Washington and its allies are watching with worry to see if these groups will implement strict Islamist laws or show flexibility and form a democratic government. If these groups, some of whom were former ISIS branches, want to adopt their past thoughts on the governance to revive the caliphate, they will pose threats to ghd Western and Israeli interests. 

It can be suggested that the US officials' visit to Damascus is part of an effort to address the crisis and shape the future political landscape in a way that safeguards their interests and those of their allies.