How Will Assad Fall Impact North African Countries?

After takeover of power in Damascus by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), some North African countries have grown concerned. Here is why they are worried:

1. Political crises in African countries

The fall of al-Assad’s government could have important political consequences for North African countries. This development may be seen as a model for political changes in other Arab countries. In other words, Syria developments can motivates demands by opposition in these countries for reforms or drastic changes in their countries. General Abdul Fattah el-Sisi’s meeting with the commanders of the armed forces and security institutions of Egypt a week after fall of al-Assad can be analyzed in this framework. In fact, this meeting was a show of power to send a message to Muslim Brotherhood or the people that the Egyptian army supports him as a president and that any movement will be repressed. 

2. Return of African terrorists from Syria to Africa

The important questions that are raised in the post-Assad Syria are about the fate of the African prisoners that are released from Syrian jails. The Syrian opposition and armed groups released all of the prisoners without examining their cases. Therefore, thousands of African migrant terrorists who were among the prisoners [these terrorists are even ideologically opposed to Hamas as a resistance group and have classified them as infidels] will be released from prison and will return to their homelands. As a result, in those countries, they form new terrorist groups and sink their countries into new crises. These people may return to their countries with extremist ideologies and pose serious threats to national security. Therefore, one of the most important concerns is the spread of extremist and terrorist groups that may seek to expand their influence to other regions after the collapse of al-Assad. This will be a serious challenge for North African countries, which have already faced terrorist threats.

For example, after 2011, thousands of Moroccan terrorists entered Syria. Syrian Moroccans are not only in prison for their previous participation in the civil war alongside Syrian armed groups, but also some of them are currently "active" in the ranks of armed groups. In this regard, a few days ago, a footage was published on Moroccan social networks showing a young Moroccan armed man in military uniform expressing his happiness over the armed groups' victory over the al-Asssd government. 

One-thirds of Moroccan fighters present in Syria and Iraq are from the country's northwest, specifically from Tetouan. About 500 of these terrorists are from the a coastal line covering the cities of Tetouan, Madaq, and Fnideq. Arab and Western officials are afraid that after Syria fall, these Moroccan terrorists will return to their home countries. 

According to Tunisian security officials, 2,929 terrorists joined the conflict in Syria as a hot spot, some of whom were killed, imprisoned, and others returned to their homelands. Tunisia and Libya share a land border of about 459 kilometers, including two border crossings. Tunisian officials have assured that due to a buffer ditch that has been dug along the border with Libya for about 250 kilometers, the security and military presence of Tunisian forces has been strengthened and they sieze the terrorists upton their arrival from Syria. 

Thousands of terrorists also moved to Syria from Algeria, Libya, and Mauritania, about whose numbers there are no exact statistics, but it is believed that after the current developments in Syria and the release of African prisoners, their possible return to North African countries will become a serious threat to these countries.

3. Halt of Syria military and economic cooperation with African countries

- Suspension of trade deal between Syria and Tunisia

Among the most important agreements signed between Tunisia and Syria, one can mention the trade agreement signed in April 2004, which was buried by the severance of diplomatic relations with Damascus in 2013. In December last year, with the appointment of new Syrian ambassador to Tunisia, the parties emphasized the need to activate past trade agreements. Therefore, after the armed groups assumed the power in Syria two weeks ago, the agreements signed between Syria and Tunisia will be suspended, although the volume of business ties with Syria of al-Assad is already trivial and Tunisia will not very much be influenced by Syria developments. 

- Cancelation of military cooperation between Syria and General Khalifa Haftar of Libya 

The fall of al-Assad on December 8 will also endanger interests of General Khalifa Haftar, the commander of militias fighting the central government in Libya, as Haftar and al-Assad established close military and commercial relations in recent years. In 2020, a cooperation agreement between al-Assad and Haftar to train pilots for Haftar's forces in Syria began. This agreement was signed precisely when Haftar was leading his attacks against the former Government of National Accord for control of Tripoli. Therefore, the training program for Libyan pilots has been disrupted due to the resumption of fighting and al-Assad's fall in Syria, as two Libyan L39 Albatros aircraft used for training were completely captured by the Syrian opposition at the Nayrab Air Base in Aleppo a week before al-Assad's collapse. 

4. Impairment of support for Polisario Front and Western Sahara 

Along with South Yemen, Algeria, Libya, and Mauritania, Syria was one of the few Arab countries to support the Polisario Front since its founding in the 1970s, and Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafez al-Assad, recognized the 'Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic' in the early 1980s. Al-Assad remained steadfast in defending the self-proclaimed republic and maintained his positions about Polisario Front's sovereignty over Western Sahara.

On October 16, Polisario Front celebrated the resolute position of Syria UN envoy at the UN General Assembly's Fourth Committee in support of Western Sahara independence. The Syrian envoy said that Syria did not recognize the Western Sahara as part of Moroccan territory. Saad Dine Elotmani, a leader of the Islamist Justice and Development Party, former prime minister and foreign minister of Morocco, has stated that "Syria's position on the issue of Western Sahara has shifted in favor of the Sahrawi separatists, while the Syrian opposition has a position that undoubtedly respects Morocco and its sovereignty." Therefore, with the fall of the Syrian government and the coming to power of opposition groups, it is expected that relations between Rabat and Damascus will resume, and perhaps the new Syria will recognize Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara.

5. Weakening Russian position in Africa 

Russian-Ukranian war and limitations of Russian military capabilities have revealed the Russian incapability to protect its strategic allies, including the African countries, and actually Russian pull-back from Syria has strengthened the idea that Moscow has a fragile power. After the developments in Syria and the weakening of Russia's presence and the possibility of their withdrawal from the Tartus naval base in Syria, Russia will inevitably focus on the Benghazi naval base in Libya, although after the recent developments in Syria and the fall of Bashar al-Assad, it has sparked widespread controversy among Libyan politicians and analysts. They believe that General Haftar will look for a new ally in western Libya, because Russia is no longer considered an unreliable actor in the minds of African politicians. 

Given the developments in Syria and Russia's withdrawal from this country, the countries of the Sahel including Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali, which have witnessed military coups in the past four years and Western countries withdrew their forces from them and Russia filled their place, may decide to seek new allies. 

Russia strategy shift in African countries: Collapse of al-Assad will push Moscow to review its regional policy. Russia has used Syria and Libya as transit hubs for its military equipment for operations in the Sahel region. Russian ships regularly sail through the Syrian port of Tartus and unload their military equipment innTobruk in eastern Libya, where they are picked up by Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) troops and transported overland to neighboring countries.

Conclusion

It can be said that fall of al-Assad can leave multifaceted impacts on North African countries. These impacts will vary depending on the internal conditions of each country and the way the regional leaders deal with them. Meanwhile, it is certain that this political occurrence invites for vigilance and readiness of North African countries to counter the possible consequences.