Dim Outlook for Netanyahu Govt. after Gallant Ouster

On Tuesday night, announcing the dismissal of Gallant, Netanyahu said: "Today I decided to fire Gallant and appoint Yisrael Katz in his place. We need trust between the defense minister and the prime minister... The crisis of trust between me and Gallant did not allow the management of the war, and I am confident that with this action, the cabinet will work more coherently."

In order to clarify the main reason for his dismissal, Gallant issued a statement, saying Netanyahu dismissed him for his opposition to the law that calls Haredims to the army, support for the ceasefire and prisoner swap with Hamas, and also the request to form a committee to investigate the failure to deter Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Storm on October 7. Addressing the Israeli public, Gallant said that the prisoners could be returned and that this would require painful compromises. He had previously said that not every goal can be achieved with military operations and force is not a substitute for everything.

It should be noted that the Israeli army had called Haredi Israelis to military service due to the shortage of forces in order to ease the pressure on serving personnel. However, Israel Army Radio reported that as of last July, only four percent of the 3,000 eligible Haredi men had agreed to join the army.

According to the Israeli media, the army is short of about 10,000 forces due to large casualties and engagement in multiple fronts. Gallant intended to provide some of these forces from among the Haredis, but Netanyahu opposed the plan. Top Haredi rabbi had threatened that if the government forces them to military service, they will leave the occupied territories. 

Another issue that can be pointed out in Gallant's dismissal is that Gallant and the Chief of Staff of the Army, Herzi Halevi, took the responsibility for the failure in Hamas’s attack and said that Netanyahu and others should also accept the responsibility for this failure, but the PM skipped the responsibility. Even at the beginning of the Gaza war, the Hebrew media revealed that Netanyahu had burned a part of the documents related to October 7 which mentioned the negligence of the intelligence and security forces and the government.

Root of differences 

The serious differences between Netanyahu and Gallant's approach to Gaza war and escalation of tensions and then war with Hezbollah on the northern border boiled over since September. 

Gallant has repeatedly clashed with extremist parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Internal Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who were the first to congratulate Netanyahu on Gallant's ouster. The move reflects growing disagreements over the management of the Gaza war, which began on October 7 and looks set to drag on for years.

In the first months of the war, Gallant seemed more willing than Netanyahu to end the fighting, engaged more openly with the families of the prisoners, and had earlier said that it was time to reach an agreement to return the prisoners, but Netanyahu was blocking the path.

But unlike Gallant, Netanyahu's new Defense Minister Israel Katz is considered one of Netanyahu's closest allies and supports his tough policy on Gaza, as he is expected to implement the "generals' plan" aimed at intensifying military operations, even if it takes evacuating northern Gaza civilians and forcing them to the south of the enclave. 

Gallant described Netanyahu's insistence on a total victory over Hamas as futile and repeatedly asked him to work out a plan for managing Gaza after the war.

He also in a letter to Netanyahu published by Haaretz newspaper last week said the war is going on without a compass and its goals should be updated.The current situation, he adds, harms the management of the battle and the decisions of the Council of Ministers, especially the direct exchange of prisoners. The exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran increase the need for discussion and updating the goals of the war with a comprehensive look at different fields and the linking between them.

Additionally, Gallant has rejected any proposal that suggests keeping the army in Gaza as an occupying force, infuriating Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who yearn for re-occupation of Gaza.

After Gallant's call for probe into October 7 attack, Netanyahu became afraid that if the truth is revealed, his fake accounts of a year of Gaza war will be revealed. Recently, path of the Gaza war document were leaked to media, adding to his worry. That may be, some say, the reason for him firing his defense minister. 

According to these documents, Netanyahu's government has declared Hamas movement and its leaders to be the main culprits of the failure in prisoners case, but if the investigation in this field was started with Gallant's pressure, the curtains would be removed and it would cause a great scandal for Netanyahu, and therefore the PM showed Gallant the door before truth is disclosed. 

Having in mind that Israel is currently involved in a multi-front war against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, the timing of Gallant's dismissal brought strong criticism and the opponents described the move as a policy detrimental to Israel's security.

Gallant is a member of Netanyahu's party Likud, and the PM fired him as he knows that his removal will not lead to collapse of the coalition of hardliners. So Netanyahu thinks that he removed a nuisance to the ambitious plans in Gaza. 

Security and political gaps deepen 

Perhaps with dismissal of Gallant the cabinet will be more coherent, but undoubtedly in Gaza and Lebanon wars, it will set up serious challenges to Netanyahu. 

Gallant's comments immediately after his ouster indicated that he wanted to relieve himself of the pressures of the defeats suffered in the Gaza war.

The destruction of Hamas, which Netanyahu and his friends insist on, is practically impossible from the point of view of the Israeli military authorities, and the continuation of the war in Gaza will only increase the costs for this regime and increase the casualties of the soldiers. 

In the meantime, as the minister of defense in charge of field developments, Gallant was under the criticism of the prisoners' families, and therefore he wants to tell the public that the main culprit of the failure of prisoners swap deal is Netanyahu himself, who does not follow the plans of the army. 

From viewpoint of the opposition parties and citizens, Netanyahu has jeopardized the security of the settlers for his political and personal interests, and with the clarification of the realities behind the war in Gaza, the wave of protests against the government will intensify, as after the removal of Gallant, protests re-inflamed and police forces blocked streets leading to Netanyahu’s residence in Al-Quds (Jerusalem). Yair Lapid, ex-PM and current opposition leader, and other opposition leaders who sieze any chance to deal blows to Netanyahu called on all Israelis to take to the streets.

Therefore, Gallant's ouster not only will not improve the situation of Netanyahu's cabinet, but also will deepen the internal divisions, something that Issac Herzog, the president of the Israeli regime, also pointed out. 

He said: "Israel's enemies are waiting for a sign of weakness, collapse, or division among are us. I ask the leaders to act with great responsibility."

In the meantime, political divisions will also have a negative impact on the situation of the battlefields, and its effects have shown themselves since some army commanders have expressed their opposition to the continuation of the war in Gaza and Lebanon in reaction to dismissal of Gallant. 

The commanders, who unlike the politicians understand the realities of the field very well have no hope of making gains against the resistance groups in Gaza and Lebanon, and for this reason, they are trying to build pressure on Netanyahu through disobedience. Therefore, the gap between the army and government will put Netanyahu face to face with a difficult dilemma. 

On the other hand, the main reasons for the dismissal that Gallant mentioned are only related to the war in Gaza and there is no mention of the war on the northern front. This is while the occupation army has suffered heavy losses against Hezbollah in the past one month and has no strategy to make gains in the northern front.

The hardline ministers think that in the absence of Gallant, they will make great achievements on the Lebanese front, but the more they struggle to fight Hezbollah, the more they will sink into this quagmire, since with the increase of rebellion among the military, the continuation of the war will grow more difficult. 

With continuation of the calls for public protests in reaction to ouster of Gallant and opening of new fronts against the occupied territories, the Netanyahu government will drift to a brink that is hard to escape.