Can Ankara and PKK Find Common Path to Peace?

As a political partner of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the government, Bahceli proposed that the PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan who has been in the Turkish prison since 1991 go to the parliament and deliver an address.

This suggestion came as a day before, the PKK fighters had attacked state-owned Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) and even claimed responsibility for the attack. Over the past few years, the Turkish military and security forces have succeeded in hitting dozens of PKK positions using aerial surveillance, continuous use of offensive drones, and even conducting operations deep inside Iraqi territory. The government claims that these attacks have practically grounded PKK and made it lose its operational forces, but the elements of the PKK every now and then carry out surprise operations against the military, causing casualties. 

In the meantime, Alwaght has talked to former Iranian ambassador to Azerbaijan and a political analyst Mohsen Pak Ayeen, asking him about the aspects of the proposal and its influence on the home and regional issues. 

In his first comments, Pak Ayeen said that the main motivation for dissolution of the PKK is release of Ocalan. 

"The proposal to end the conflict was made by Mr. Devlet Bahceli, the head of the National Movement Party. Having in mind that Abdullah Ocalan, the main opponent of Erdogan, who has been arrested and imprisoned on charges of terrorist acts, if appears in the parliament of this country and gives a speech and somehow expresses regret and remorse for his actions and declares the end of terrorism and accepts the dissolution of PKK, it will be a positive measure to the government of Erdogan," Pak Ayeen said. 

Commenting on the motivation for such a proposal, Pak Ayeen said that Erdogan and the security and military apparatuses of Turkey have been involved in war for years with the PKK, and in case of dissolution of this party, the security and military forces can restore their power and confront other opponents. After death of Erdogan's rival Fethullah Gulen in exile, if the PKK is dissolved and Ocalan is released and reconciled with Erdogan, another opponent of the president will be removed, causing more room for Erdogan to realize his political objectives. He will have more time and energy to suppress the Kurdish militias in northern Syria. 

While ruling out accepting the conditions of Erdogan’s government by the PKK, Pak Ayeen added that this possibility, if realized, will be a very positive step, but it does not seem that Ocalan will agree to the dissolution of the PKK. Even if Ocalan agrees, the group has an established and institutionalized structure, and it is unlikely that PKK leaders will accept this unless Kurdish rights are fully respected based on the views of the group's leaders. We have to see if Erdogan and his government are ready to observe the rights of the PKK. The Turkish government and the army believe that everyone living in Turkey is a Turk and generally do not recognize the identity of the Kurds, so this point should also be taken into account. 

Concluding his comments, Pak Ayeen held that if Ocalan approves of dissolution of the PKK after his release and actually Erdogan’s aim materializes, it will undoubtedly play into the hands of the Turkish government. But the important issue is whether Ocalan or the current leaders of the PKK agree to dissolution. It is unclear yet. That the PKK attack came immediately after the proposal of Bahceli means that the PKK body and its commanders like Cemil Bayk or Murat Karayilan are against the proposal. It remains to see how this path ends and where the negotiations go. 

Ismail Bagheri, an expert of Turkish affairs, commented on the role of the foreign and geopolitical elements in this proposal, saying that PKK is supported by the CIA, MI6, and Mossad to punish Turkey and leave it facing challenges. This is because Ankara seeks to expand its regional role play in West Asia, Caucasus, Eurasia, and even Central Asia and this does not appeal to the US. In addition to dynamizing its economy and exporting industrial, chemical, textile and food products, Turkey in the field of military industry, especially drones, has been able to step into some important areas and this is unbearable for the West and Washington. So, despite the fact that Turkey is a member of the NATO, the Westerners are against Ankara's regional role and that is why they directly and indirectly support the PKK. Therefore, all of the story, from recent PKK attack to the peace proposal and others, is a sort of warning to Turkey, though in some areas like re-threatening Syria and creating a safe zone with the American and Western green light they serve the Israeli interests.