Israeli Cabinet’s Intelligence Scandal: Three Scenarios

Israeli media have recently reported joint investigation of the Shin Bet, the police and the army about top-secret information leakage from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office. The information are reportedly related to Hamas movement and the war in Gaza.

According to one of the documents, which was seen by Bild newspaper of Germany, Yahya al-Sanwar, the assassinated leader of Hamas, had outlined the strategy of this movement regarding the negotiations about prisoner swap and the ceasefire, which the regime's security institutions consider very secret.

In one of these documents, it is claimed that Hamas used the protests of the families of the Israeli prisoners to put pressure on the Netanyahu government to accept the prisoner swap agreement. 

Immediately after the publication of these documents, the Israeli media reported the arrest of several people in Netanyahu's office on charges of being involved in information leakage, and the head of the Israeli Prison Service ordered the prisons on Friday to allocate a special cell for Israelis who were arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran.

The Israeli media reported that this cell is designed to provide advanced security appropriate to imprisonment and to manage important and high-risk security prisoners, as part of the Israeli Prison Service's response to the challenges of wartime incarceration. 

According to Kan news network, the focus of the probe is on a former spokesperson to Netanyahu. 

Reports say that this person attended secret meetings despite not having a security clearance. According to the Israeli media, the suspect has passed confidential information to the international media, especially Bild newspaper. However, Netanyahu's office denied media reports that some of his office employees were among those arrested.

Israel's Channel 12 reported that the main suspect worked for Netanyahu and has been his advisor over the past one and half a year. The network added that "he devoted his entire life to the prime minister and was ready to risk his life for him. The scandal suddenly erupted, but Netanyahu has trampled him and lied that the person did not work for him. Not only did he work for Netanyahu, but he was in his office every day, attended security meetings, and moved here and there with the prime minister's convoy."

These information were published by the Israeli media as the prosecutor of the case had earlier somehow lifted the restrictions on reporting about the case. Meanwhile, Israeli circles say that this leakage could jeopardize the Israeli war aims in Gaza. 

Though it is yet to be clear how the leaking took place, several scenarios are mentionable:

Iran's infiltration into Netanyahu's orbit 

Since in all of the leaked top-secret documents we can track foreign actors, in this leakage, too, we can see the same thing. 

Having in mind that the level of tensions between Iran and the Israeli regime has reached its peak in recent months and both sides are trying to use all their hard and soft capacities to hit the enemy, now the finger of Israeli blame is pointed at Iran. Although the claim has not been confirmed so far and the investigation is underway, given the escalation between the two sides, it is not unthinkable that Iran can have a role in this development. 

Recently, Israeli media revealed that the Israeli prosecutor's office has issued an indictment in the Tel Aviv court against Asher Benjamin Weiss, a citizen of this regime, on the charge of a mission by Iran to pursue an Israeli nuclear scientist for assassination. In this indictment, it is stated that this person had a mission on behalf of Iran and was doing various actions for Iranian agents that could harm Israel's security.

If Iran penetrated Netanyahu's office this close, we can imagine how vulnerable Tel Aviv is to security breaches, just contrary to Israeli talk of intelligence invincibility. 

Over the past year, Israel's conflict with Iran and resistance groups showed all the loopholes of this regime. From the ineffectiveness of intelligence and security systems in predicting Hamas’s Operation Al-Aqsa Storm to the leakage of confidential information and cyber attacks, which are much-vaunted like the Iron Dome air defense system, showed that the power of the regime's information and security systems was largely exaggerated. To put it differently, the memorable words of late Hezbollah Secretary-General Seyed Hassan Nasrallah, who said many times 'Israel is weaker than a spider's web," have now shown themselves in reality.

Over the past months, Israeli citizens and officials were horrified for the army's incapablity to intercept Axis of Resistance's missiles, and now with the Israeli weakness becoming open to all, Tel Aviv's concerns grow greater. 

Opposition seek to put strains on Netanyahu 

The second scenario is that possibly some internal elements who are concerned about the current situation have leaked the information, because over the past year, Netanyahu has shown many developments of the war in Gaza upside down to the people and the media, and if it is proven that during this time Netanyahu was feeding false news to the citizens, the pressure on the government to stop the killing machine in Gaza and Lebanon will increase. 

If the leaked information do not match the policies stated by Netanyahu, the PM should expect heavy waves of pressures from the parties and citizens, something putting Netanyahu in a dilemma. Therefore, it is not unlikely that opponents of Netanyahu's policies have had hands in this leaking to pressure his cabinet. 

In the eyes of the opposition, the war in Gaza and Lebanon has made no gains, and with the ambitions of Netanyahu and his friends, different fronts have been opened against the occupied territories, causing insecurity more than securing Israel. 

Top-secret documents leaked with Netanyahu's knowledge 

Another scenario that can be mentioned is that this move was taken with the knowledge of Netanyahu. Although it is not yet clear whether Netanyahu was aware of the news leakage, the opposition say Netanyahu is mainly to blame for this leakage. 

Former PM and opposition leader Yair Lapid said: "The representatives of Netanyahu's cabinet claim that Hamas disrupts the prisoner swap agreements and the cabinet has no problem concluding this agreement. But this is not the truth and it is a story that they make. If they need to falsify documents for the purpose of telling false stories, they will do so and leak classified documents and endanger Israel's security."

"This cabinet fabricated everything and we cannot know the real status of the economy, security, and war," Lapid added. 

This comes as earlier, Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, citing an informed source, reported existence of a group in the government that fabricates the documents and spreads misleading information to foil the prisoner deal. 

Benny Gantz, the head of National Camp, held Netanyahu responsible for the leakage, saying that without going into the details of the case under investigation, the PM is fully "responsible for what happens in his office, whether positive or negative." 

Given the remarks of Lapid and the Israeli media, it can be said that if Netanyahu intentionally leaked confidential information, he intends to use fake documents to paint Hamas as the main party to blame for war to avoid internal and external pressures. Over the past year, Netanyahu has repeatedly blamed Hamas for the failure of the ceasefire talks, and with these claims, he prepared the ground for massacre in Gaza, and he is trying to save himself from the risks with false documents.

On the other hand, the families of the Israeli prisoners, who are also fed up with the policies of Netanyahu's cabinet and the wait for the release of the prisoners, believe that the government is not taking action to return the prisoners, and they are expanding their protests day by day, and this is worrying Netanyahu.

Therefore, in order to silence the opposition, Netanyahu insinuates that Hamas has not agreed to release the Israeli prisoners and that the hardline government of Tel Aviv has done its best to rescue the prisoners in order to remove a heavy burden from its shoulders. So, Netanyahu wants to align the public and opposition with his plans to advance its agenda in Gaza. 

In general, no matter which scenario is true, two issues will be the inevitable consequences of this leakage. First, Israeli security and intelligence structure suffers from weakness and vulnerability, and second, there is a deepening gap in the Israeli governance structure that goes to the extent of crossing red lines of the national security.