On the 61st Day... The Resistance Will Have A Different Say

He asserts that if “Israel” fails to withdraw, the Resistance will adopt a different stance. Shehadeh concludes that international actors are pressuring the resistance to accept a formula of "reconstruction in exchange for political concessions." His article unfolds as follows:

It is now evident that preparations must begin for the post-60-day period, as “Israel” is unlikely to withdraw from South Lebanon or implement the US-sponsored agreement signed by both parties.

What role will the international quintet play after the deadline, particularly given reports that its American chairman advised Lebanon to give “Israel” another opportunity to achieve its objectives before withdrawing?

Advised or not, “Israel” will neither withdraw nor adhere to the agreement, leaving the committee and the broader international community unable to enforce compliance. Likewise, Lebanese diplomacy is unlikely to secure any guarantees from international actors, including the United States, to pressure “Israel” into fulfilling its obligations.

Domestically, voices claiming to champion Lebanese sovereignty allege that the Resistance has capitulated, signing an agreement with secret clauses allowing “Israel” to perpetrate its violations. These baseless claims serve as a pretext for these individuals to avoid condemning such violations—or perhaps even reflect their desire for “Israel” to maintain pressure on the resistance to achieve their broader goals.

In this period, while “Israel” accomplished more in 60 days than during the war, the Resistance, too, achieved what was previously unattainable. It is now evident that international laws, resolutions, and agreements provide no real protection for Lebanon. Only force deters “Israel,” and nothing short of it will suffice.

As Hezbollah Secretary General His Eminence Sheikh Naim Qassem noted, the Resistance has regained its strength and is prepared for any escalation. He emphasized that the Lebanese state should negotiate from a position of strength after the 60-day deadline. He reiterated the Resistance’s readiness to implement the equation of “‘Tel Aviv’ for Beirut” if “Israel” escalates further.

What alternative stance will the Resistance adopt if “Israel” refuses to withdraw?

First, it is essential to outline the three possible scenarios for what could unfold in South Lebanon after the 60-day period elapses.

Scenario One: “Israel” withdraws and ceases its violations.

This scenario—though ideal—is excluded, as its likelihood has now diminished to zero. It would require “Israel” to honor the agreement fully, which seems improbable.

Scenario Two: “Israel” withdraws, but its violations persist.

In this case, the Resistance may respond by targeting northern settlements.

Scenario Three: “Israel” neither withdraws nor halts its violations, maintaining the current status quo.

Here, we will focus on the Resistance’s potential alternative stance.

In Scenario Two, which is also unlikely, the resistance would respond by targeting the northern settlements with strikes.

In Scenario Three, the resistance is expected to initiate specialized operations against enemy positions within Lebanese territory, reminiscent of the tactics employed before the year 2000, which culminated in the withdrawal of “Israeli” forces from Lebanese soil.

Should “Israel” retaliate to these operations by targeting Lebanon’s interior, the Resistance’s pre-established equation of placing “Tel Aviv” against Beirut would be primed for activation.

To be frank, the Resistance has exercised restraint in responding thus far due to a significant pressure factor: the return of displaced citizens from the south to their villages, where reconstruction efforts have already commenced. Similarly, rebuilding initiatives are underway in the southern suburbs and Baalbek.

We are on the brink of a pivotal phase in the near future, as developments in the region accelerate at an extraordinary pace. The challenges ahead are considerable, both in the context of “Israeli” aggression and the presidential entitlement, which is now under international pressure aiming to impose the following equation on the resistance: reconstruction in exchange for political concessions.