ICJ Likely to Conclude Israel Committing Genocide in Gaza, Expert Says

"I think the court will decide that genocide has been committed in Gaza, given what is happening now, especially in the north, in the Jabalia (refugee) camp, where Israel is trying to force the entire population out of that area...and the UN is warning that famine is imminent," said Quigley, an emeritus professor of international law at Ohio State University.

He spoke to Anadolu in an interview about the ICJ's potential role in addressing war crimes in Gaza, particularly following the escalation on Oct. 7, 2023.

While Israel might contest the court’s jurisdiction, Quigley anticipates the ICJ will assert its authority, which would necessitate Israel filing a memorial on the merits of the case.

Regarding the ICJ's January order, Quigley underscored the court's firm stance.

"The court said...that Israel must refrain from killing," he said.

Although the court cannot mandate a complete ceasefire, "since it lacks jurisdiction over Hamas," Quigley noted it "strongly told Israel to stop."

He pointed out, however, that enforcing the court’s orders presents challenges. If the ICJ issues rulings that it knows will not be enforced, it risks being seen as ineffective.

"It does make the court look like a paper tiger," he said, suggesting that this might prevent it from taking more decisive actions at times.

Unique factors in Gaza genocide case

Quigley explained that the situation in Gaza is distinct from previous genocide cases involving Bosnia and Croatia. He emphasized that in addition to acts of killing, Gaza faces "imposing conditions calculated to result in the population's physical destruction," which aligns with a separate article of the Genocide Convention clearly violated by Israel.

Noting that cases at the ICJ take years to resolve, Quigley said that decisions made on the merits often do little to address the immediate situation.

"The solution for that is the idea of provisional measures," he said, suggesting that these measures could help manage the ongoing crisis.

He also stressed the significance of other states intervening in the legal process.

"Intervention brings other states into the picture," Quigley said, adding that some nations prefer to intervene only at the merits stage.

He expressed his hope for more states to intervene in cases against Israel.

Currently, the ICJ is handling two major cases related to the Gaza conflict: one from South Africa accusing Israel of genocide through direct killing and withholding essential resources, and another from Nicaragua challenging Germany over its arms supplies to Israel.

Despite these legal proceedings, the international community has struggled to stop the violations of international law in Gaza.

The United Nations continues to report worsening humanitarian conditions. This has raised doubts about the effectiveness of international courts in addressing ongoing crises.

Since Oct. 7, 2023, Israel’s brutal offensive on Gaza has claimed the lives of more than 43,900 people and rendered the region nearly uninhabitable.

The bombardment has displaced most of the population, while an ongoing blockade has caused severe shortages of food, water and medicine.