FP: Does “Israel” have an Endgame in its Conflict with Hezbollah?

The “Israeli” assassinations of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July posed a risk to intensifying these mini-wars, according to the magazine.

It added,” the conflict in Lebanon could escalate into a full-blown war, potentially due to miscalculations by ‘Israel’ or due to deliberate decisions to fight the war sooner rather than later.”

FP emphasized that If “Israel” chose to initiate a full-scale war, it would be a very challenging and potentially devastating one for both “Israel” and Lebanon.

However, even in the intangible case scenario of “Israel” winning the war, the conflict with Hezbollah may remain unresolved. 

To maintain strategic advantage, “Israel” is better off focusing on a deterrence strategy, despite the ongoing threat of Hezbollah. 

According to FP, before the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, “Israelis” accepted Hezbollah's presence on the northern border due to its large number of well-trained fighters and its massive rocket arsenal, and recognized the devastating potential of a war with the resistance.

In the 2006 “Israeli aggression on Lebanon, Hezbollah constantly rained down rockets on “Israel” and inflicted considerable losses on “Israeli” ground forces when they tried to invade the southern border.

Today, “Israelis” ask, if a surprise operation from Hamas could prove so devastating, what suffering might a war from the more formidable Hezbollah entail?

Added to this fear is the dilemma of 60,000 “Israelis” settlers, who fled the north of the country in the face of Hezbollah operations and may only return when they feel safe.

After the 2006 war, Iran assisted Hezbollah and provided reconstruction funds to Lebanon, allowing the group to gain political support from the devastated communities, and would likely do the same in case of a renewed war with “Israel”, stated the magazine.

Should war come, “Israel” would face challenges in maintaining a long-lasting effort due to its exhausted military, limited spare parts, and limited supplies from of its war on Gaza.

Today the Lebanese Resistance is far more formidable than ever before, even if it suffered heavy losses, its forces could retreat from the border region, return when “Israel” retreats, or conduct operations at their discretion if “Israeli” forces remain, per FP.

Moreover, “Israel” risks more criticism internationally if it were seen as the aggressor on Lebanon, especially after the negative world opinion from the Gaza war genocides.

Many young Americans are very critical of “Israel”, and the devastation of any war and the suffering of Lebanese civilians would turn them and populations in Arab countries even more against “Israel”.

In fact, a half-baked deterrence, is better than a devastating war that, in the end, would have an unsatisfying conclusion for the “Israelis”.

Strategy, however, has never been an “Israeli” strength, stressed the report by FP.

Indeed, more than 10 months into the war in Gaza, “Israel” still lacks a realistic endgame.