What Do Polls in Gaza and Israel Say on War?

The Palestinian Political Research and Survey Center conducted a poll of Palestinian public opinion in the West Bank and Gaza Strip between May 26 and June 1, 2024, with the results showing that overwhelming majority of the Palestinians support October 7 attack, and more than half the residents of the Gaza Strip expect Hamas to win and return to rule the Gaza Strip after the war.

The result further suggests that about 80 percent of the population of the Gaza Strip lost one of their relatives or at least one of their relatives was injured in the war. It adds that two-thirds of Palestinians support the October 7 operation, and about 80 percent believe it put the Palestinian issue in the global spotlight.

Also, the results of the survey highlighted the drop in support among the Palestinians, especially in the West Bank, for the discourse of peace with Israeli occupation and the performance of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in negotiating with the Israelis to advance the two-state plan, and resistance has become the main option of the Palestinian nation.

Based on survey, more than 60 percent of the target community declared that they agree with Abbas stepping down, and the popularity of Hamas and Marwan Barghouti and the support for armed resistance have increased.

About half of the people, the survey suggests, believe that the priority should be ending the occupation and creating an independent Palestinian state. On the other hand, support for armed resistance increased and more than 60 percent support the dissolution of the PA.

When asked which political party or political orientation they support, the largest percentage (40 percent) said they prefer Hamas, followed by Fatah (20 percent), while 7 percent chose the third forces. 

The arrangers of this survey have stated that to ensure the security of field researchers in the Gaza Strip, interviews were conducted with residents of this strip in certain areas where there is no daily conflict, including areas such as Rafah, parts of the Khan Yunis, some parts of central Gaza, and all shelter centers. The poll did not include the north, east of Rafah, and areas where there is ongoing intensely. 

The results indicate that although the overwhelming majority does not believe that the rulings of the International Criminal Court (ICC), if issued, will lead to the arrest of the leaders of Israel or the Hamas movement, the majority believe that they may contribute to acceleration of the end of the war. 

The results also show that two-thirds of people expect Hamas to win the Gaza war. Also, half of the population of the Gaza Strip expects Hamas to return to control the Gaza Strip after the war. 

According to the results of this survey, a higher percentage of West Bank residents today compared to the situation three months ago say that the Gaza Strip will remain under the control of Hamas.

In a similar question that included speculations or estimates about the most likely scenario for the day after the war, the results were close to the first question, as half of the population of the Gaza Strip said that Hamas would return to control the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, the level of contentment with Hamas and Yahya Sinwar is increasing. 

The survey continues that at regional levels, the highest rate of contentment is with Yemen, followed by Hezbollah, Qatar, Iran, Jordan, and Egypt. In this survey, it seems remarkable that the level of satisfaction with Iran has increased by 19 percent, and the reason for this is definitely the direct missile attack by Iran on Israel in April. The interesting point is that the majority of residents of the Gaza Strip consider this attack in support of the Palestinian people.

Polls in Israel suggest disappointment 

While the optimism about the future and victory over the Israeli enemy and support to resistance is the central point of the new polls in Palestine about Gaza and the West Bank, on the opposite side the Israeli polls about home conditions are completely different. 

In the latest polls, there are astonishing results showing an increase in Israeli public belief that the Israeli army will be defeated and the cabinet mismanaged the war. 

Recently, Channel 12 published a survey, according to which nearly 70 percent of them believe that the management of the Gaza war by the current Israeli cabinet is "bad." 

According to this network, most of the Israelis have a very bad assessment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's war management, to an extent that only 28 percent believe that he has managed this war well. According to the survey, 46 percent of the participants said that the war was poorly managed by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant. 

One of the most important inferences that we can make from Channel 12 poll about the home affairs of the Israeli regime is the growth of disappointment of the settlers and citizens with the performance of the army and government. For example, the network stated that 68 percent of people of Israel find it "unlikely" to win the war. 

The network also suggested that according to poll, 88 percent of the Israeli citizens believe that war goals have not been fully realized.