Gaza Ceasefire Talks Quietly Making Progress

In this connection, Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed on Monday reported, citing an informed source, that progress has been made, adding that the talks have reached the stage of swap of prisoners. 

During its visit to Cairo on Sunday, the Hamas negotiating team handed over to the Egyptian Ministry of Intelligence the names of a number of sick and elderly Israeli prisoners who are to be released within the framework of the prisoner agreement between the resistance and the Israeli regime.

The movement also handed over to the Egyptians a list of the names of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons that it wishes to release within the framework of the agreement, and it is said that four prisoners with American citizenship will also be released under the deal.

Hamas stressed in a statement that the meeting discussed the efforts made for a ceasefire and the Popular Support Committee in Gaza, a new governing body meant to administer Gaza post-war. The movement stated that it is determined to see the success of these efforts and end the war against the Palestinian people.

Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed further reported that the Israeli delegation was to travel to Cairo to discuss some terms of the proposed ceasefire deal. An Israeli news network reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently led a "security meeting" discussing the opportunities to revive prisoner swap talks, adding that a progress has been made, but this does not mean an agreement. 

Israeli Prime Minister Isaac Herzog said that the "negotiations are taking place behind the scenes to return prisoners from the Gaza Strip, and there is a good opportunity to make a special change that will lead to an agreement to return prisoners from Gaza."

Temporary ceasefire 

Speculation about the progress of the talks comes as Hamas insists that a ceasefire is needed for the prisoner swap to take place, and this issue was also raised in the Cairo talks.

According to reports, Hamas has agreed to a 60-day transitional phase of the ceasefire agreement, during which essential food, medicine and fuel will enter Gaza.

The Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv reported that the Cairo talks are focused on three issues: A military channel aimed at ending the war, a political channel aimed at reaching a prisoner swap agreement, and a humanitarian channel aimed at reviving the Gaza Strip and returning life there to normal. These three channels have been merged and are under Egyptian control. 

The Israeli newspaper further reported that "the main points of the agreement are as follows: The Israeli army will stop the war in several stages and gradually withdraw from Gaza. The Rafah crossing will be reopened to hundreds of trucks carrying aid, Israel will release hundreds of security prisoners, and, like Lebanon, the US and several other countries will monitor the phased implementation of the agreement."

An Israeli official reported that to resume the talks, Israel should soften some of its stances like those about the Philadelphi Corridor it occupied on the border with Egypt after war. This corridor is off-limits to Israeli forces under peace agreement with Egypt signed in 1979. 

Hamas leaders are trying to facilitate the return of refugees to the northern areas, although the fulfillment of this Hamas request is a point of question given the views of hardline Israeli ministers on the issue.

Some sources hope that the prisoner swap agreement will pave the way for a complete cessation of hostilities in Gaza.

The Hamas-Israeli talks come as Fatah and Hamas have recently held talks in Cairo to govern Gaza in the post-war period. According to the agreements between the two Palestinian parties, the Social Protection Committee in Gaza is responsible for managing various affairs in the strip and will operate under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority.

Ma'ariv also reported that the agreement document that the Egyptians obtained from Hamas and the PA is an achievement by itself, and that Netanyahu's cabinet must soon decide whether to accept the handover of Gaza to this committee.

Netanyahu under home and foreign pressures

Although such hardline ministers like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir gave threatened that they will quit Netanyahu's cabinet to put strains on the PM, the pressures on Netanyahu are mounting. 

One of these levers of pressure against the PM is the protests of the families of Israeli prisoners, who are demanding every day that the government end the war in Gaza and return their children.

Netanyahu recently met with the families of the prisoners, in a clear retreat from his previous positions, claiming that he had succeeded with Hezbollah on the northern front and further saying that he now supports a ceasefire.

Netanyahu is afraid that the remaining prisoners will die, and in that case the wave of criticism of his government will intensify.

The Israeli army also recently warned the political leadership that the food crisis in Gaza is putting Israeli prisoners at risk of death and starvation.

On the other hand, Netanyahu's corruption cases have also been reopened and he must appear in court. Therefore, a defeat in the case of releasing the prisoners will put him in a difficult situation. 

On the other hand, US President-elect Donald Trump will also enter the White House in the coming weeks, and Israeli media have said that Trump is pressuring Netanyahu to conclude the prisoner swap deal and the Gaza war as soon as possible, lest he see the Gaza issue on his desk at the beginning of his new administration.

Also, international pressures have been effective in bringing Netanyahu to negotiating table with Hamas. After ICC arrest warrant to Netanyahu was issued, even some Western countries welcomed it and voiced their commitment to its enforcement. 

Netanyahu is certainly going through a rough patch and has to make hard choices. Any agreement with Hamas means officially accepting defeat in the stated goal of obliterating Hamas and will, indeed, challenge his government survival. On the other hand, he cannot buy more time as the Israelis and the world have lost their patience.