Challenge of Electing President, Heavy Defeat of Sadr’s Fledgling Coalition

The coalition, which the Sadrists claim is the largest faction in Iraq's fifth parliament, consists of the Sadr faction led by Muqtada al-Sadr, the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani, and the al-Sayyada (Sunni ally of the ruling coalition) led by Muhammad al-Halbousi and Khamis al-Khanjar.

The coalition immediately introduced its candidates to form a national majority government. The Coalition for the Salvation of the Nation has nominated "Riber Ahmad Khalid" from the Kurdistan Democratic Party as a candidate for the presidency and "Sayyed Mohammad Jafar Sadr" from the Sadr faction as its candidate for the post of Prime Minister. The announcement of the coalition's existence comes at a time when the issue of forming a majority national government has become a point of contention for various Iraqi political movements in all the days following the announcement of the results of the October 10, 2021, elections.

On the one hand, Muqtada al-Sadr, against the will of the majority of Shiite political movements present within the framework of Shiite coordination, emphasizes the formation of a national majority government, and on the other hand, Shiite movements present within the framework of Shiite coordination with Kurdish allies (Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party) Independent representatives insist on non-extremism and unilateralism in forming a new government cabinet. All in all, this controversy has become a focal point for the confrontation and conflict between these two political fronts in the heart of Baghdad. But among these bilateral representations, it seems that for the people and the domestic and foreign political observers, the sitting of the parliament and its developments have become the main criterion and criterion for recognizing the superior power in the parliament.

Re-election of the President in the Parliament session
The most important aspect of announcing the existence of the Reconstruction of the Homeland Coalition on March 23rd was that it coincided with the time set for a parliamentary session to elect a new president. The coalition of Sadr and his allies expected to bring their candidate, Riber Ahmad Khalid, to preside the Al-Salam Palace by bringing those present in parliament to the quorum (two-thirds of the deputies), but as before, the Parliament did not reach the quorum. According to news sources, 202 out of 329 deputies attended the session. This also caused the parliamentary session to be suspended again and the time of March 30, 2022, to be chosen by the presidium of the parliament as the time of the next session.

This situation is in the context that the meeting of February 7 and 8, 2022 to elect the new chairman of the Al-Salam Palace had changed the reason for not reaching the quorum of representatives to the consultative meeting. The current situation comes after a new interpretation of the federal court required a minimum attendance of 220 members of parliament for the presidency.

According to Article 70 of the Iraqi constitution, the House of Representatives elects the president from among the presidential candidates by a two-thirds majority. If none of the candidates gets the desired majority of votes, then there will be a contest between the two candidates who received the most votes, and the candidate who gets the most votes will become president. But the Iraqi federal court's interpretation of Article 70 of the constitution regarding the holding of a parliamentary session to elect a new president seems to have the potential to easily suspend the formation of a government by the two main rival factions. In fact, according to the Iraqi Federal Court ruling on the interpretation of Article 70 of the Permanent Constitution of Iraq (2005), "The House of Representatives will elect a new president by a two-thirds majority of the votes cast. "Also, the legal number of deputies present in parliament to elect a new president will be at least two-thirds of the total number of deputies in parliament." Explicitly, this interpretation means that at least 220 of the 329 members of parliament will be required to hold a parliamentary session to elect a new president.

Possibility to enter the era of legal vacuum
The new session of parliament once again showed that the situation is more difficult than Sadr and his allies envisioned to form a new government, which passes through the presidential election corridor. Basically, the election of a new president will be the second stage in the formation of a new government after the election of the speaker of parliament; because according to Article 76 of the Iraqi constitution, the president-elect is obliged to nominate the candidate of the majority faction within 15 days. This means that the Reconstruction of the Homeland coalition must first be able to nominate Riber Ahmed as president, and then form a new cabinet.

However, the new session of parliament on March 26th showed that it would be very difficult to gather 220 deputies for the session to elect a new president. In the current situation, the Shiite coordination framework has about 85 to 88 representatives. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) will have 19 members, while Al-Halbousi and Khamis Al-Khanjar will have about 10 members. In addition, a number of deputies, between 10 and 20 deputies, were also relatively absent from all parliamentary sessions under various pretexts. If this number of representatives is gathered, it can be clearly stated that the Shiite coordination framework can easily take the meeting to elect a new president out of the legal circle.

Such a situation, with Sadr's insistence on monopoly in the formation of the cabinet, will essentially confront the political process with a kind of large legal vacuum; because, on the one hand, the presence of two-thirds of the deputies, or 220 deputies, is necessary, and on the other hand, both rival factions have the ability to outlaw the parliamentary session to elect a new president. If a new president is not elected, it will be virtually impossible to elect a new prime minister and nominate a new cabinet, which would mean Iraq entering a period of political stalemate that could have major consequences for the country.
 
Ball on the ground; Changing tactics or continuing the game in vain?
Muqtada al-Sadr has strongly supported the formation of a "national majority" government in all the days since the announcement of the results of the October 10, 2021, elections, and has so far not backed down from his initial positions to form a majority government. Even Sadr, in response to the formation of the Salvation Coalition, congratulated the people of Iraq in a message on his Twitter account, announcing the largest parliamentary faction and introducing candidates for the presidency and prime minister of Iraq. In his Twitter message, the leader of the Sadr movement described the move as a unique and important achievement in saving Iraq, and expressed hope that the process of forming a national majority government would be completed without any delay and that the new government would be able to improve the bitter situation. This country has a clear plan and in a timely manner to the satisfaction of the people.

But contrary to Sadr's optimism, the March 26th session of the Iraqi parliament clearly showed how wrong he was in analyzing the situation. Undoubtedly, the outcome of the recent meeting confirms the remarks made by the head of the Coalition for the Rule of Law, Nouri al-Maliki, in the past few days. Al-Maliki, in response to the announcement of the Iraqi presidential and prime ministerial candidates by Sadr, said: "We believe that the parliament will not be able to reach the quorum in Saturday's session." It is impossible for a tripartite coalition to reach 220 members in parliament. The decision on the presidency is within the framework of Shiite coordination. Nouri al-Maliki said that if the session does not take place on Saturday, the tripartite coalition will be forced to negotiate an understanding within the coordination framework.

Sadr now seems, more than ever, have realized the truth of Nouri al-Maliki's remarks. Sadr must now realize the fact that any government formation without agreement without a Shiite coordination framework is very difficult, and even if formed, it cannot be successful. Basically, the Iraqi Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Al-Taqdim and Al-Azm coalitions can in no way be reliable strategic partners for Muqtada al-Sadr as they are analyzing the political developments in Iraq with a long-term perspective and are not willing to enter into a major duel with a section of powerful political currents in Iraq for a cross-cutting political action that has the ability to influence the Iraqi equation with widespread public support and large parliamentary seats.