Islam Times - Understanding Egypt’s Behavior towards Post-Assad Syria: Challenges and Opportunities

Understanding Egypt’s Behavior towards Post-Assad Syria: Challenges and Opportunities

Islam Times - The collapse of Bashar al-Assad government in Syria and takeover of the power by the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) has captivated attention of many political analysts and politicians. Meanwhile, the reactions of various countries to Syria developments, including Egypt, have been significant, although in the vicinity of Egypt there are more important cases like Libya, Sudan, and Gaza. This piece is going to examine the Egyptian behavior as well as its motivations and aims of this country regarding the Syrian developments.

1. Record of Syria-Egypt relations

The Egyptian-Syrian relations have a long and complicated history. The two countries, once united under United Arab Republic from 1958 to 1961 in their confrontation of Israel, took different paths in foreign policy after collapse of their alliance. With the start of Syria crisis in 2011, Egypt took different stances towards the crisis in various times. Under Muslim Brotherhood-aligned President Mohamad Morsi, Cairo backed opponents of President Bashar al-Assad. But with presidency of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egyptian policy shifted to implicit support to Damascus and Syria stability.

The two countries have exceptional historical relations with each other, because in the October 1973 War (Yom Kippur War), Egypt and Syria launched joint operations against the Israeli regime east of the Suez Canal and the Golan Heights. The Egyptian people follow the developments in Syria due to their common historical roots. For this reason, the Egyptian foreign ministry has also announced its sincere desire to support Syria at this stage.

Regional developments, including the decline in the influence of terrorist groups such as ISIS and the rapprochement of some Arab countries with the Syrian government, have influenced Egyptian policies. Syria’s return to the Arab League in 2023 marked also a turning point in Arab countries’ relations with Damascus. Egypt, which has always sought to maintain its leadership role in the Arab world, welcomed this development and tried to strengthen its presence in regional equations.

2. Egyptian behavior before and after al-Assad fall

With the start of the armed groups' operation against al-Assad government on November 27, Egypt was the first country to express its stance on the Syrian developments. The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on November 30, following a phone conversation between Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Ati and Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh on Friday November 28. The statement said: "Following the advance and control of the Syrian armed opposition groups in Aleppo, Idlib and other areas, Egypt, expressing concern over the recent developments in Syria, announced its support for the Syrian government and its institutions and emphasized the importance of this country's role in achieving stability, combating terrorism, and expanding the sovereignty and stability of the state, its independence, and territorial integrity."

Egypt’s FM said on the sidelines of the International Conference in Support of Gaza in Cairo last month that what is happening in Syria is worrying. Egypt is interested in preserving the Syrian government and its institutions, and in this regard, Egypt established extensive contacts with all parties, including Arab and regional and influential international parties. He also highlighted the continuation of efforts to contain the then unfolding situation and to keep Syria away from any dangers that threaten the security and health of its innocent citizens, as well as full support for its people. What can be understood from Egypt's initial statements after the developments in Syria is that Egypt supported the territorial integrity of Syria and opposed any partition of the country. Cairo believes that preserving the unity of Syria is essential for the security and stability of the region, and that the division of the country could bear widespread negative consequences. Therefore, el-Sisi has tried to adopt a balanced approach based on national interests towards developments in Syria, but he has also supported Bashar al-Assad to some extent.

Commenting on Syria developments after al-Assad fall, el-Sisi said that Cairo was following what was happening in Syria and stressed that Egyptian embassy in Damascus would keep its activities. He also underscored the need to preserve Syria's unity, territorial integrity and the security of its people, as well as the need to start a comprehensive political process that excludes no party and includes all components and sectors. The Egyptian president believes that Israel has violated the 1974 disengagement agreement by revoking the buffer zone with Syria and occupying Syrian territory. The Egyptian president also stated that Egypt has monitored Israel's targeting of the Syrian government's infrastructure and capabilities and wanted pressure on Israel to stop its attacks on Syria.

One of the main reasons for Egyptian concerns about Syria developments is tangible increase in activities of terrorist groups in the region, especially Egypt. Given its experience of fight against terrorism in Sinai Peninsula and other parts of the country, the Egyptian government is highly worried about expansion of terrorism in the region. That is why Cairo has tried to do anything to prevent rise of radical groups in the region.

According to Rai Al-Youm, General el-Sisi met with the commanders of the armed forces and security institutions a week after collapse of government in Damascus. In this meeting, which was held at a very important and sensitive time, el-Sisi clearly stated: “The army is ready to confront any internal and external danger." He also maintained that society can be governed with social peace, and the people’s voices must be heared before people’s anger turns into tension. Therefore, it is evident that his meeting a week after the fall of al-Assad with the armed forces and the country’s security institutions conveys the message to the Egyptian people that el-Sisi has the power and ability to maintain his government and that the armed forces support the government.

In a meeting with journalists on December 15, the Egyptian president described Syria of important geopolitical position. "Those who are currently deciding in Syria are the owners of the country. They will either destroy it or build it," he was quoted as saying.

Egypt’s behavior in Syria future developments

In post-Assad Syria, the behavior of Egypt with new rulers of Damascus can be affected by various factors that include Egyptian interests, regional developments, and international pressures. Here is the possible Egyptian behavior:

1. Support to the transitional government: Egypt may support the transitional government formed after the fall of al-Assad. This move could be in line with Cairo's efforts to play a constructive role in resolving the Syrian crisis and strengthening its position in the Arab world. Regarding the future of Syria and the transitional stage, Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Tamim Khalaf noted that this phase should pass with the participation of different sects and religions. All Syrian political forces should play a role in managing the transitional process. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Ati, according to Al-Hurra news network, said about the Syrian transitional government that his country is committed to supporting a peaceful and inclusive transitional process in Syria, while at the same time demanding the rights of all Syrian sects, including Alawites and Christians. He also stressed on the importance of fighting terrorism and ensuring security.

2. Boosting cooperation with regional actors: The collapse of al-Assad government may motivate Egypt to work with such actors as Turkey and Qatar. The two countries have so far had an active role in Syria developments and Cairo can realize its interests through work with them. RT Arabic reported that Egypt FM held several contacts with various regional and international sides to coordinate stances and share views on Syria situation.

3. Interaction with world powers: Egypt has always tried to adjust its foreign policy based on the balance between global powers. On the issue of Syria, Cairo is also trying to maintain its relations with the main players and avoid unnecessary tensions.

4. Focusing on national security: Another Egyptian priority after al-Assad fall can be national security. Cairo is worried about expansion of terrorism and reactivation of Muslim Brotherhood-aligned groups in the country. After Syria developments, the Change Movement of Muslim Brotherhood called for unity of the groups of this movement. A statement cited by Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper read: "After the collapse of our peoples’ revolution, the victory of the Syrian revolution has restored hope to the heart of the Arab Spring and proved to us that the will of the people is invincible if it remains steadfast and committed. It has become clear to all that the military regime in Egypt has continued to commit injustice, oppression and tyranny since its brutal coup of [2013]. Standing up to this regime is no longer an option, but a duty that cannot be postponed. This injustice will not be overthrown except by the will of a united revolution that is working with all its might to break the limitations and restore and strengthen the resolve of the people." The statement added that the government of el-Sisi will not be eliminated unless with a revolution and their prisoners will not be freed unless with a real revolution that "uproots the tree of tyranny and returns the right to its owners." It continued that "this victory does not succeed with humiliating negotiations with a regime that knows nothing but oppression and injustice."

5. Involvement in Syria reconstruction: One of Egypt's priorities in recent years has been to expand economic cooperation with regional countries. In this context, the reconstruction of Syrian infrastructure provides an opportunity for Egyptian companies to play an active role. This move will not only help strengthen Cairo's relations with Damascus, but also create economic opportunities for Egyptian companies.

6. Fighting terrorism: The reality is that from the very beginning of the conflict in Syria, Egypt set its position on this crisis, which is to support the Syrian government and its institutions for stability and against terrorism. This stance is because Egypt itself faces internal security challenges and considers combating terrorism as one of the principles of its foreign policy. Therefore, Cairo supports any joint regional initiative to confront extremist groups in Syria.

7. Maintaining diplomatic relations with new rulers of Syria: "Cairo still has a field presence in Syria and the Egyptian embassy is still active in the country, which shows Cairo's commitment to maintaining diplomatic relations and supporting the stability of Syria." This were remarks of Egyptian FM in a meeting with foreign journalists in Egypt.

Egypt’s challenges and opportunities post-Assad

Now that al-Assad has fallen, Egypt will face challenges and opportunities. The challenges include the inevitable competition with regional and international actors, management of internal crises, and dealing with security threats. On the other hand, Syria developments present opportunities for Cairo, including strengthening its regional influence and taking economic advantage of Syria’s reconstruction. However, due to domestic economic constraints, Egypt may not be able to effectively engage in rebuilding Syria. In addition, strengthening relations with Syria could increase Cairo's influence in the Arab world and solidify its position as a key player.

Conclusion

The remarks by Egyptian officials upon start of tensions in Syria were similar to their previous positions on the Arab country. Egypt's position towards Syria rests on a will to preserve the country and its institutions and reject any foreign intervention or support for armed groups in any country.

But Egyptian behavior after al-Assad fall indicates a will to maintain balance among national interests, regional relations, and international obligations. Adopting a conservative approach and stressing political solutions, Cairo pushes for a constructive role in Syria. Still, home and international limitations may hamper its capability to meet its aims. El-Sisi is predicted to concentrate on national security to prevent activation of terrorist groups and shore up cooperation with key actors in Syria. Egypt will also back the transitional government provided that it allows participation of all factions in the nation's political future.