Syria Developments Set off Alarm Bells to Central Asia

The stability in this country directly affects the balance of power in the region, and other peripheral regions from the Eastern Mediterranean to North Africa and the Indian Subcontinent are also concerned about being affected by the fallout from the worsening security situation and a new round of armed conflict in this country. One of the most important of these regions to be effected from Syrian crisis is Central Asia.

First of all, the composition of the rebel groups reflects the strong presence of militants from Central Asia. Though many foreigners who are members of armed rebel groups carefully try to hide their true national identity in a bid to present a nationalist (Syrian) image of their actions and to avoid being listed as terrorist groups in most countries of the world, reports nevertheless indicate that among them there are Uyghurs, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and, according to some sources, Kyrgyz nationals.

Media reports suggest that the number of militants active in Syria has now reached 60,000, of which 3,000 to 5,000 are estimated to be from Central Asian countries.

Reports indicate that before the recent developments, there were about 2,000 militants from Kyrgyzstan alone in Syria, some of whom returned to their country, while others were killed or remained in Syria.

The most organized and experienced fighters among these groups are the Uyghurs of the Turkistan Islamic Party, which is based in the eastern region of China and is composed mainly of Uyghurs. Many of them have gained combat experience in Afghanistan.

Engin Ozer, a Turkish political scientist and analyst, revealed to Caspian Post that after the 2020 ceasefire agreement between Syrian government forces and armed groups under the De-escalation Zones Agreement, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) began recruiting a new group of “foreign fighters” to bolster its ranks. These forces came mainly from regions such as Chechnya, Albania, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and other Salafi-affiliated groups.

These rebels were organized into three specialized units and played a significant role in the militants’ advances in Aleppo and Hama, according to Ozer. 

The increase in the number of Central Asian militants in Syria and their international connections has also made Syria a breeding ground for radical ideologies in the region, often returning to countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, especially since areas struggling with economic difficulties have always been a suitable environment for the growth of extremist ideologies and one of the targets of takfiri groups to recruit through tempting financial promises. 

Moreover, in recent years, as ISIS prisoners and their families have returned from Syria to their homelands in Central Asian countries, the process of reintegration through UN-supported training programs has been slow and very challenging.

But another major influential player in the region that has serious concerns about Syria becoming a safe haven for takfiri and extremist groups from Central Asia under the control of the armed opposition is Russia. 

In 2024, groups such as ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISKP) repeatedly threatened Russian national security, most notably the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall on the outskirts of Moscow in March 2024. The terrorist attack, which killed 145 people and injured more than 500, was carried out by a group of Central Asians, mainly Tajiks and Uzbeks.

With many Central Asians migrating to Russia for work, the spread of extremist and anti-Russian ideologies could greatly increase the security threats to Russia.

Some of these radical fighters were also transferred to Ukraine by intelligence and security agencies for war, where they gained experience in operating drones and subsequently passed this expertise on to their “Central Asian brothers.” A clear example of this is the training of Tahrir Al-Sham militants by Ukrainians in recent months and the formation of the “Shahin Brigade” within this group.

Russian analysts argue that Western powers with ties to Tahrir Al-Sham may seek to arm these militants against Russia. Possible scenarios include escalating the conflict in Ukraine, opening a new front in Central Asia or the Caucasus, or enabling Uzbek and Tajik takfiris to infiltrate Russia as a workforce and create sleeper cells for future attacks.

Yet another major source of concern of Central Asian countries and Russia about new Syrian developments is the role of Turkey, which beside backing the armed rebels in Syria is an effective actor in Central Asian and Caucasian developments.

Many of the radical militants of Central Asia have in past years used Turkey to make their way to Syria. 

Therefore, the Turkish actions in northern Syria have triggered the criticism of the regional actors, since this geopolitical conflict is not just about Syria, and it risks spreading radicalism and insecurity to the whole region and to Caucasus and Central Asia.