Dim Outlook for Lebanon Talks under Heavy War Fire

The American diplomat who had traveled to Lebanon and Israel in the past weeks carrying a ceasefire proposal, on Tuesday shared with the Lebanese leaders Washington's proposal to end the war on the Israeli northern front.

Upon arriving in Beirut, Hochstein said that a peace deal is within reach, but its realization lies with the decision of the warring sides, and it seems that the atmosphere of talks between him and the Lebanese officials was positive. 

Still, the Lebanese officials have not yet shown a sign they are giving a green light to the proposed ceasefire plan. Caretaker Prime Minister of Lebanon Najib Mikati in his meeting with the American diplomat once again underscored priority of ceasefire and sovereignty of Lebanon, and called for end of the Israeli attacks. 

Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, who is known as Hezbollah's representative in the ceasefire negotiations, also took a softer stance than he had taken in the previous round of negotiations, stating that the chance of reaching a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel was 50 percent. He, nevertheless, said that everything now depends on the Israeli regime to announce its final opinion on Lebanon's conditions.

A senior Lebanese official also told Reuters that the Lebanese government and Hezbollah have agreed to the US proposal for a ceasefire with the Israeli regime. However, they have some reservations about the content of the proposal.

Still, Hezbollah says any agreement must lead to a quick end to the war. Reuters quoted Mahmoud Qamati, deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council, as saying: “Any agreement must lead to a quick end to the war and not violate Lebanese sovereignty.”

Details of the new proposal made by the Biden administration have not yet been leaked, but the Israeli Kan network claimed that under the plan, 5,000 Lebanese forces would be deployed in the southern Lebanon, the stronghold of Hezbollah. The Israeli regime would also pledge not to attack Lebanon and the land borders between the two sides would be redrawn.

What were the previous US conditions? 

Previously, the US had proposed 13 principles in the draft ceasefire, some of which did not observe the rights of the Lebanese people and Hezbollah. One of the main points of the previous plan was the implementation of the terms of Resolution 1701, which the Lebanese government and Hezbollah had agreed to. The US proposal also aimed to achieve a 60-day cessation of hostilities as a basis for a permanent ceasefire based on UN Resolution 1701.

But there were also serious obstacles ahead of the plan that made it difficult to reach an agreement, as the draft stipulated that the Lebanese army and UN peacekeeping forces should be the only armed forces in the southern region of the Litani River and that Hezbollah should withdraw from this area. However, this condition has not yet been accepted by Hezbollah due to the ulterior intentions of the US and Israel.

Also, some sources said that the US was seeking to pressure Lebanese officials to agree to the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, a condition that seems unlikely to be accepted by the Lebanese, as Lebanese officials, especially Nabih Berri, have explicitly opposed the inclusion of a term allowing the Israeli regime to intervene in southern Lebanon if it perceives a security threat, calling it a violation of territorial sovereignty of Lebanon. 

The US ceasefire draft contains other terms that seem unrealistic. Wael Abu Faour, a member of the Democratic Gathering parliamentary faction close to Hezbollah, announced the existence of an article in the US plan that suggests dispatch of Arab forces alongside international forces. 

In light of these statements, the US is trying to establish some pro-Israeli Arab regimes in Lebanon. The presence of Western-Arab forces is aimed at dominating Lebanon, violating its sovereignty, and weakening the resistance, in order to secure in the political arena what the Israelis have failed to gain on the battleground.

Although Joe Biden is trying to end the war on Israel's northern front, the Lebanese have warned that they are not willing to sign a document that does not respect the territorial integrity of their country at any cost.

Experts believe that the military achievements of the Israeli regime in southern Lebanon have not been enough to impose its conditions on Beirut and Hezbollah, and Hezbollah will not accept any agreement that gives the Lebanese army and international forces permission to destroy its infrastructure in its bastion the south. 

Although Beirut officials sounded upbeat about Hochstein's recent visit, reaching an agreement on the northern front remains uncertain given the ambitions of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In this regard, an Israeli source familiar with the negotiations doubted the possibility of reaching an imminent agreement, saying: "Despite the progress made, Hezbollah's refusal to accept Israel's request for freedom of military action in southern Lebanon may jeopardize the entire negotiation process."

Negotiations under heavy war fire 

A few days before the US special envoy's visit, the Israelis stepped up their airstrikes on various Lebanese cities in order to wrest concessions from the Lebanese under pressure of war. In the Knesset session on Monday, Netanyahu announced negotiations "under the fire of war with Lebanon" as the only option to achieve the goal on the northern front. A few days ago, the occupation army even assassinated Hezbollah's media chief and spokesman Mohammad Afif. 

However, the equations did not go as the Israeli officials projected, and as Israelis heightened their attacks, Hezbollah expanded its missile attacks in response to include depth of Israel, including the capital Tel Aviv. 

In multiple drone and missile attacks, Hezbollah struck a number of sites in Israel, especially Tel Aviv, penetrating the much-vaunted Iron Dome air defense and causing fires in the capital. 

Images published by Israeli media outlets showed missile attack-caused fire burning in buildings in some neighborhoods of Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, despite the Israeli army's strict media censorship of the actual number of casualties among its soldiers, on Wednesday, the Israeli Army Radio admitted that 800 Israeli officers and soldiers have been killed since the start of the Gaza War on October 7, 2023. 

Khalil Nasrallah, a Lebanese journalist close to Hezbollah commented on the aims behind the massive attack on Tel Aviv and other occupied territories, saying: "This massive operation carries the message that damage to Beirut means damage to Tel Aviv. Hezbollah is showing with this operation that it holds the initiative and welcomed Hochstein with fiery messages. Therefore, the [Israeli] escalation will be met with increased resistance operations, and negotiations under fire are not only in the interest of Israel."