Islam Times - Israel Outlook as the First Anniversary of Gaza War Arrives

Islam Times - A year ago in such a day, when a group of fighters of Al-Qassam Brigades as the military wing of Hamas infiltrated the occupied territories, the Israeli settlers woke up to see a scene they have not experienced before.

Destroying the fortifications and electronic walls, the Palestinian fighters broke into a number of settlements and military bases and posts in Gaza Envelope.

Though full details of Israel's historic security failure have not been revealed, the Netanyahu government has declared what happened to be a crossing of all red lines and an existential threat to the regime, thus launching an unprecedented brutal invasion of Gaza that continues to unfold after a year.

During a full year, over 41,000 Palestinian, mostly women and children, were killed and now there is no safe place for life of two million civilians in Gaza Strip.

Despite international pressures on Tel Aviv to end the genocide, the occupation government by furthering the starvation and displacement of civilians has shown it abides by no law.

Now after a year, some questions present themselves: Has the Israeli regime managed to realize aims it set for its operation? Has it managed to reverse the heavy defeat it suffered on October 7? And on the anniversary of the longest war of Israel, does the scale tip more toward the gains or the losses?

War in Netanyahu’s narrative; wide gap of reality and claims

One year after mobilizing all the capabilities of an army of 360,000 combat forces, Netanyahu and his colleagues have still failed to convince the public opinion and domestic critics about eliminating the threat posed by Hamas and achieving victory on the battleground in line with the aims set at the beginning of the war. The aims of Tel Aviv in the beginning of the invasion of Gaza were to destroy Hamas, destroy its military infrastructure, and free Israeli prisoners Hamad captured during its operation.

Although Israel has succeeded in destroying Gaza and seizing a part of it in the north and taking control of the Rafah border and the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt, the destruction of Hamas has been a goal that the Israeli army has not even come close to after a year of unceasing bombardment campaign and ground invasion, an issue pushing Israeli security officials to admit that Hamas is impossible to destroy.

Although Hamas's ability to carry out large-scale missile attacks has been hampered by the destruction of Gaza and the intense air and ground control of the northern regions, and some of its political leaders and field commanders have been martyred, its military structure has remained largely intact. The occupation army has even failed to destroy the extensive network of Hamas tunnels, and after a year, it was only able to discover 20 percent of them, something showing that the resistance groups have successfully confused all the enemy's intelligence systems.

One of the main goals of the Tel Aviv behind its Gaza campaign was to return the prisoners, but it is yet distant from this goal, and so far it was only able to release 50 of the prisoners through negotiations and deals with Hamas, with military solution proving ineffective in this regard. According to the reports, there are still 117 prisoners held by Al-Qassam Brigades and other allied forces in Gaza, and the Israeli army has not even obtained information about their hiding places. Netanyahu claims that Hamas has been destroyed, but in a contradictory position, every time in the face of the protests of the families of the prisoners, he asks the leaders of this movement to release the prisoners in an unwanted acknowledgment of the presence and control of Hamas over the war situation.

Additionally, Israel tried to dissuade the Palestinians from struggle for their occupied lands through destroying the resistance groups in Gaza, but this delivered the reverse, and now the resistance thought has taken deeper roots among the Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank who are under an excruciating 12-month conflict.

At present, Israel is losing two major battles. The first one is the real battle against Hamas and its tunnel system, and the second one is to uproot the anti-occupation struggle thought of the Palestinian people. The fact is that this thought has now penetrated all the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Another important issue portraying a picture of failed Israel on the anniversary of October 7 is the global anti-Zionism rise and the complete destruction of the credibility of this regime's 70-year-old propaganda that abuses the Holocaust legend to paint the Jews as victims and, therefore, justify anti-Palestinian crimes.

After Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, the leaders of Tel Aviv tried again to play victim with the widespread propaganda of the Western media to not only legitimize the illegal settlements but also to destroy the Palestinians, but after a year, things have gone against Tel Aviv.

Now, after the genocide in Gaza, the Israeli regime is facing an unprecedented diplomatic and legal campaign internationally. Suing Israel's crimes with the International Criminal Court (ICC) by South Africa and support from other countries to this unprecedented move shows that this regime after starting a multi-fronted war has lost its position as a victim as the West always alleged. Now in the eyes of the world public, Israel is colonial and racist, breaking all the international conventions and laws with its genocide against the Palestinians.

Israel now more insecure

The biggest aim of Netanyahu's government behind entering the Gaza killing floor was to ensure the security of the settlers so that they could live in peace in the absence of resistance groups, but after a year, the leaders of Tel Aviv may think that they have defeated their main enemy or are in the process of defeating it, but this warmongering has not only not brought security to the Israeli citizens, but also the occupied territories have plunged into security and political crises.

On the first anniversary of war, Israel is fighting on several fronts for existence. The Israeli leaders who before the war were overjoyed to advance the normalization with a number of Arab countries and talked about destroying the Palestinian cause now are thrown back 70 years, the time when they were fighting for existence.

The insecurity of the occupied territories has also aggravated the political divisions between the Israeli leaders, and these unprecedented political divisions weaken the system's abilities to solve problems and crises day by day, to the point that President Isaac Herzog has repeatedly said that Israel may not see its 80th anniversary.

These political divisions have also shown themselves well in the field of security. The war of attrition has caused a lot of damage to the Israeli army.

As a result of this war, the legend of Israeli army's invincibility has now collapsed for the mainly immigrant citizens who want security and prosperity because they see firsthand that despite the great military capabilities injected by the Americans into the Israeli military, it is unable to achieve its goals in a small blockaded area like Gaza. According to the official statement of the army, so far 700 soldiers have been killed and more than 3,000 wounded. Meanwhile, figures published by the Israeli media are higher than those published by the army.

Because of these losses and frustration of a victory against Hamas, insubordination has increased among the army forces and many of them are no longer willing to return to the battlefield. Recently, Israeli media reported that the army is seeking war in Lebanon while is facing a crisis of personnel shortage. Tel Aviv authorities have repeatedly admitted that they are not capable of fighting on several fronts, and the longer the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, the more the crisis in the army will intensify.

Actually, the occupied lands that were to be the promised lands of the Jews have now turned into a more insecure place for them and unworthy of staying in.

According to Israeli media reports, since the start of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, about 1 million Israelis have migrated from the occupied territories to Europe and the US and have not returned. Also, according to the polls, half of the Israeli citizens seek to emigrate abroad, and this reverse migration is the outcome of the wrong policies of the Netanyahu government, which has spread the shadow of fear over the settlers by fighting against the resistance groups. On the other hand, parts of the Jewish diaspora also condemn Tel Aviv's brutal actions against the Palestinians and believe that this regime has endangered the security of all Jews in the world with its crimes.

Additionally, the Israeli economy suffered hard as a result of the devastating war in Gaza, something feeding the expectation that the regime will enter a long period of recession, especially with the start of a new conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. In its latest reports, the International Monetary Fund predicted that Israel's GDP would shrink by nearly 20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the first anniversary of the conflict approaches.

According to experts, this war has greatly affected the cost of living in the occupied territories and has contributed to the expected economic decline and increased poverty rates. It also undermined expectations for recovery of economy which is already suffering from losses in vital sectors as a result of the huge costs of the war, causing large budget deficits and imposing austerity in the 2025 budget. According to a report by Israeli central bank , the cost of the war in the Gaza Strip is estimated to be the highest of any of Israel's previous wars, expected to reach more than $67 billion by 2025. Moody's rating agency also lowered the grade of the Israeli regime by one point last week, the lowest in recent decades.

Moreover, with the failure of the Israeli army to free the prisoners, their families every day broaden their protests against Netanyahu government as they blame him for insecurity and call for him to end the war. Since with prolonged war more military personnel will be killed or injured, or even can be captured, the protests are expected to widen in the future, causing serious threat to Netanyahu and his cabal.

In general, result of a year of Israeli war crimes in Gaza shows that Tel Aviv has failed to meet any of its stated goals and the losses outweigh the gains, and if it preses ahead with its war, the occupied territories will be more insecure with Resistance camp's strengthening of "unity of fronts" strategy, pushing the Israeli regime a step closer to existential collapse.