Islam Times - Where is the Saudi-Yemeni Cold Peace Heading?

Islam Times - The consequences of the Gaza war over the past 9 months have left their impacts on many regional and international cases. Meanwhile, one of the newest areas that is taking political and geopolitical influence from the present Palestinian developments is the unstable and challenge-stricken relations of Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

Though it has been months since the tensions between Sana'a and Riyadh have been defused and the two sides are in a process of peace talks, amid several-month stagnation in the talks, signs and pieces of evidence heralding a new round of conflict in the Arabian Peninsula began to emerge in recent weeks— a new conflict that can be tracked to the Gaza war.

The most important development that happened in the past few days in this field was the speech of Seyyed Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Yemen's Ansarullah movement, during the Ashura mourning ceremony who described the Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz the "the Korah of the present time" and "the horn of the devil" and warned Saudi Arabia about starting a new war.

Ansarullah chief described the Saudis as "agents of the Americans" who have escalated tensions against Yemen in order to serve Israel and take revenge on the Yemeni people for banning navigation of Israeli ships in the Red Sea.

It is noteworthy that in recent months, the government under the control of forces affiliated with Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Aden, by issuing an ultimatum to all the country's major banks to move their main branches to the south as the seat of the pro-Saudi and Western government and sanctioning banks defying the order, waged a currency war against the Ansarullah-led government of Sana'a. The imported currency earned from the sale of oil is deposited only to the Central Bank of Aden. Officials in Sana'a call Saudi Arabia and the US the main designers and actors behind this plot by the Central Bank of Aden.

In part of his speech, Ansarullah leader addressed the Saudi leaders, saying that he advised the Saudi kingdom to listen to the warnings and chanting of the people of Yemen and "walk back" from the wrong path of support to the US and Israel and Islamophobia and misotheism.

After these remarks, the Yemeni army and popular committees named a bank of strategic locations including airports, ports, military bases, science and technology parks and the Neom project in Saudi Arabia as their legitimate targets.

Also, reportedly Ansarullah moved the case of talks from the negotiation team to the army, sending a clear message of reviewing its approach to continuation of the ceasefire with the Arab kingdom.

Meanwhile, the attack of the Israeli regime on Yemen's Hudaydah port has increased possibility of crisis re-erupting.

On Saturday, Israeli fighter jets carried out 25 attacks on several civilian targets in Hudaydah port, which mainly included oil tanks and energy facilities. Some sources told Al-Mayadeen news network that the attacks, which left 3 dead and 87 injured, were carried out in coordination with the US and Saudi Arabia.

Aljazeera after an investigation of the Hudaydah operation has said that Israeli fighter jets very likely flew in Saudi airspace to strike the port.

Given the threats by senior officials of the National Salvation Government (NSG) in Sana'a against the Saudi role in various plots against Yemen to deal economic and military blows to the country, Alwaght has talked to Abdul Salam Taghi, an Arabian Peninsula affairs expert, and Davoud Ahmadzadeh, a West Asia affairs expert, asking them questions about prospects of tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia and the state of peace between the two countries.

Starting the interview, Mr Taghi said that the recent threats by Ansarullah leader have to do with Gaza war developments. Ansarullah engaged in war with Israel in four phases after warnings to Tel Aviv to end the genocidal war on Gaza. The first phase started in the 25th day of war, the day Yemen fired missiles and drones at Eilat port. In the second phase, the Yemeni army turned the Red Sea into a battleground against the Israeli regime. In a special operation, Ansarullah siezed an Israeli ship named Galaxy Leader. The Yemeni actions in the Red Sea showed off the strategic advantage of resistance. Attacking all the Israeli and Israeli-bound ships disrupted 12 percent of the international trade. The US-led naval coalition that was formed to protect the Israeli interests in the Red Sea went nowhere. The heavy attacks of the US and Britain on Yemen did not stop Ansarullah, and the Yemenis responded by sinking two British ships. Yemeni forces even targeted the USS Dwight D Eisenhower aircraft carrier that was deployed to the Red Sea to threaten Yemen. Carrier returned home after failing to meet its goals. As the Israeli invasion continued, Ansarullah under the third phase attacked all the ships bound to the Israeli regime, crushing the image of Washington and Tel Aviv in the world. These attacks raised a question in the mind of their allies: If the US and Israel cannot defend themselves, how can they defend us? In the fourth phase, Yemen struck deep into Israel using a drone and also penetrated sensitive security regions in the occupied territories.

Taghi added that this drone struck depth of Tel Aviv unintercepted by the Israeli air defenses. A look at the remarks of Israeli opposition leader can prove this claim. Ex-PM Yair Lapid said that Tel Aviv explosion showed that the government cannot protect security. In an X post, Lapid said that the attack by drone on Tel Aviv "is another proof that the government neither knows nor can provide security for the citizens of Israel." This means a victory of the Axis of Resistance over the US and Israel and their allies. On the other hand, the attack on Hudaydah displayed the disappointment and incapablity of Israel. Actually, these attacks demonstrated the belligerent nature of this child-killing regime and the fact that it cannot defend itself.

In another part of the interview, Mr Ahmadzadeh described the Saudi double standards as the main driving force behind threats by Sana'a leaders.

He added that before the start of war between Hamas and Israel, a relatively stable peace was established between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Ansarullah provided support to Hamas and the Saudis refrained from interfering much in Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure. But behind the scenes, there was intelligence sharing and coordination with Israel and the US in a broad sense. So, the Saudi information about the attack before its launching and the intelligence passed to Saudis and the Americans before the operation in Hudaydah was the reason for Ansarullah leader's threat to Saudi Arabia. After all, Ansarullah has several times inflicted serious damage on the Saudi strategic regions and oil facilities.

Elaborating on the factors influencing the relations between Sana'a and Riyadh, Mr Ahmadzadeh held that in the first place, the rise of Ansarullah's power is the new and influential variable in the Saudi-Yemeni relations. Another variable that can inflame tensions between the two is the US presidential election. With Biden exiting the presidential race as Democratic candidate and the Democratic party being largely perplexed, chances are of Trump victory have risen considerably. Saudi Arabia's further closeness to the Americans can give Riyadh reassurances, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may review his promises for helping restore peace and stability in the region. Actually, perhaps with delivery of more weapons to Saudi Arabia and closer ties to Washington and further alignment with the American policies in the region and closeness to the Israeli regime under the so-called Abraham Accords, tensions return to Saudi-Yemeni relations.

Mr Ahmadzadeh concluded that if tensions return to the region afresh and regional security faces new challenges, Ansarullah is strong enough to seriously threaten Saudi interests in another front beside maintaining its support to Hamas.